Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
